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Richard Brill
Professor, CC
Physical Sciences
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Honolulu Community College
874 Dillingham Blvd.
Honolulu, Hawaii 96817
rickb@hcc.hawaii.edu
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This is one of the greatest controversies of our time. Who is right? Who are the
over-reactors, who are the deniers?
I wish I knew! It is clear that global warming is a reality. Whether it is a long-term
shift or a short-term glitch is indeterminate. Whether carbon dioxide is the primary
cause of warming is not clear although there is a correlation. Whether it is anthropogenic
or natural in unknown.
There are lots of data and thousands of scientists working on the problem, but Earth's
climate system is just too complex The nonlinearity of pressure, temperature, water
vapor and heat makes the equations unsolvable. They can be modeled using supercomputers,
but like all chaotic systems the models are sensitive to initial conditions. Even
so the forecasts made by models fall within an envelope of error. Models are not
reality, nor are theories.
Both sides present strong persuasions, but the methods of persuasion differ. This
makes it difficult to reach a firm conclusion because of the different methods of
reasoning used by the two sides. Given that each of must each decide for ourselves
based on the evidence.
The PowerPoint presentation below is from a talk given at the Honolulu Metro Rotary
on July 16, 2009. Other links are related to that presentation or to the problem
in general. I will make an attempt to keep this page updated. |
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